How Print Will Fall
How long until print is dead?
That question has come up in conversation about a hundred times in the past few weeks, so I thought it'd be worth taking another hack at technological fortune-telling (hey, gotta have a hobby). From the business stand-point, it's worth talking about this to stay on the pulse; personally, it's just a geeky thing I like to do. Hey, about 15 or 16 years ago my Dad and I called it when we said "I bet in the future you'll just keep all your music on some kind of 'computer box' that you can carry around, so let's see if the crystal ball works this time.
We've all seen press about e-books, pdf readers, the new Amazon.com "Kindle" being the latest invention, but will any of them take off? I think that it's undeniable that eventually, people will read the majority of their content digitally. But it will be a while before those of us who've grown up used to print are phased out. The catalyst, I believe, is going to start with schools.
While one might still hold a fondness for the experience of turning pages and feeling a book in his or her hands, what if your $1000 + college book expenses were just cut in half by purchasing a high-quality e-book reader? Even better, the following year, you can just download all of your new required reading. That's sure as hell a lot more appealing than carrying around a hundred pounds of textbooks.
Now skip a couple of years forward, when everyone in the college system has these, and millions of others who jump on the bandwagon due to the falling prices and rising quality of the readers. By now you will have mastered illegally downloading all the textbooks you need, and since you have these, you MIGHT AS WELL download something more fun to read.
Similarly, reading material like newspapers will be so much easier to read on the e-book readers (although I think they'll last in paper form a lot longer than many of us think). With aiming to clean up the environment, how can anyone really argue with this, though?
Being a comic book publisher, I have to bring up funny-books. I think they'll go digital too, but this will happen after the e-books become mainstream, and of course, offer really nice color displays. The entire concept of comics being collectible is something that separates them from magazines, newspapers and books. However, I think magazines, newspapers and books will suddenly BECOME collectibles.
A traditional "book" will become something you buy for the same reason many people buy comics right now - you want to keep it on your bookshelf, you like knowing that it is produced in a finite quantity, and you can admire how many you have. The more digital books grow, the more the passion for collecting print products will as well. I guess it's comparable to collecting music on vinyl.
Eventually it will become harder to buy things in print than it is to download them. What does this mean for publishers? I think it's going to be a very good thing. There's a danger, though, of being held hostage by those who control the mass distribution such as iTunes, Amazon.com, and whoever else comes on the scene. In contrast, you'll always be able to get your information out to people via your own online presence.
Those large brick and mortar outlets, though - the huge bookstore monsters - are already feeling competition, and I don't see any way that they could possibly last another ten years without radically changing their merchandise catalog and morphing into another form of big-box retailer.
So who knows? The effects of this are going to take a while, but when it happens, I think it's going to happen faster than anyone expects. And all of this is just over the next ten years... who know WHAT the hell will happen after that? Eventually we're going to be able to coat our walls (and anything else for that matter) with paint that acts as an LCD screen, and probably transfer files from one platform to another by simply touching it. How awesome will it be to be able to save the movie you downloaded the night before on your T-SHIRT and then play it on your bulletin board at work? I'll tell you how awesome. TERRIFYINGLY awesome.
Or... we'll all be using sticks to make fire come 2012.




